Iraq and US Sign Landmark Security Framework to Redefine Military Partnership

Iraq and the United States have signed a sweeping new security framework that fundamentally redraws the terms of their 20-year military relationship. The agreement, announced jointly by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Baghdad, sets a phased timeline for the withdrawal of approximately 2,500 US and coalition troops currently stationed at Iraqi bases — while retaining a residual advisory force of around 800 personnel to assist Iraqi Security Forces with intelligence and counter-drone operations.

The deal is the direct result of 14 months of negotiations triggered by a January 2024 US airstrike on Iranian-backed militia targets inside Iraqi territory, which Baghdad condemned as a violation of sovereignty. Iraqi officials had been under enormous domestic pressure — particularly from the Coordination Framework, a bloc of Iran-aligned Shia parties — to demand a full US exit. The new agreement is framed as a compromise: a "transition from a combat mission to a training and advisory role," according to a joint statement reviewed by Reuters.

For Washington, the deal preserves a foothold for countering Iranian influence in the region and maintains access to the Ain al-Asad and Erbil air bases for limited intelligence-sharing with Kurdish forces in northern Iraq. The Pentagon confirmed that roughly 2,000 troops will relocate to Kuwait and Jordan by the end of 2026, with the remaining advisory contingent protected under a new Status of Forces Agreement.

Iraq's oil-rich southern provinces, which produce over 3.4 million barrels per day and account for more than 90% of government revenues, were a key leverage point in negotiations. Iraqi officials made clear that US energy investment — particularly in the Basra Gas Company joint venture and refinery modernization — would be central to any future strategic partnership beyond military matters.

Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations described the agreement as "the most significant recalibration of US-Iraq relations since the 2011 troop withdrawal." The deal also carries implications for Iran, which has used Iraqi territory as a transit corridor for weapons and personnel flowing to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Under the framework, Iraq commits to preventing its territory from being used for attacks on US forces in the region — a commitment that will be tested by powerful militias operating outside Baghdad's full control.

Reaction inside Iraq has been divided. The Kurdistan Regional Government welcomed the advisory mission's continuation, citing ongoing ISIS activity in Kirkuk and Diyala provinces. Meanwhile, Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba — the most hardline Iran-backed factions — denounced the deal as a "fig leaf for continued occupation." Prime Minister al-Sudani defended the agreement in parliament, arguing that maintaining a credible security partnership is essential while Iraqi forces rebuild capacity.

The agreement arrives as Iraq prepares for parliamentary elections scheduled for late 2025, adding a domestic political dimension to every diplomatic move. Oil revenues flowing at $80–$85 per barrel give the government fiscal stability, but the militias' political wings hold significant seats in parliament and can complicate ratification. A senior US State Department official told the Associated Press that "the framework is structured to withstand a change in government" through mutual treaty obligations rather than informal arrangements.

International observers from the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) called the announcement a "positive step toward a durable and sovereign security architecture," while noting that implementation will require sustained political will on both sides. The full text of the agreement is expected to be submitted to Iraq's Council of Representatives for ratification within 60 days.